Mass notification vs targetted notification

From "The Chronicle of Higher Education":

"September 22, 2008, 10:41 AM ET

Report Finds Problems With Text-Message Alert Systems

By

Text-message alert systems may be ineffective in the event of large-scale emergencies, suggests a new report by Patrick G. Traynor, an assistant professor in the School of Computer Science at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

“In particular, because of the architecture of cellular networks, such systems will not be able to deliver a high volume of emergency messages in a short period of time,” says the report, titled “Characterizing the Limitations of Third-Party EAS Over Cellular Text Messaging Services.”

Through a series of experiments, Mr. Traynor concluded that modern cellular networks are incapable of meeting the 10-minute alert goal that has been established by the federal Emergency Alert System charter. Moreover, the high volume of traffic from a third-party alert system has the potential to block 911 calls and communication among emergency personnel, the report states.

Many colleges have set up such alert systems in the wake of the shooting rampage at Virginia Tech last year. —Caitlin Moran"

Cell broadcast (the capacity to quickly send a mass alert to all mobile devices identified by a basis station) could be the key.

Cell broadcast is now a reality in the Netherlands, and I am convinced other countries will follow this technology. It will be a hard ballgame though with mobile telecom operators (in Europe), who are not interested whatsoever in investing into this technology, as not "lucrative" for them. This will need to be enforced via legal way (in Netherlands, government found an "amicable" agreement with the 3 mobile operators), which means by the time it is accepted, other technologies will arise.

Cell broadcast will in my opinion only be used in extreme situations (alert thousands in minutes, for instance).

While SMS/text alerting will not work properly, if for instance you notify 100,000 people on a campus, or at a concert, is it a good idea to send a mass alert all to ask for evacuation?

I believe in targetted alerting, where out of 100,000 you specifically select "experts" on the field, and send THEM targetted information/advice/alerts.

The future of mass notification will go through geo-localisation, and because the population will not want to be "supervised" ("famous "big brother is watching you" syndrom), this technology will focus on doctors, nurses, first response people, policemen, all on or off duty, accepting to be present on a response database. It will HAVE to be an opt-in system.

If there is a problem in a certain area, identify who in your database is where with what specialty, and send the doctors one message, the police another, etc...They will then gather people around them and do the evacuation more efficiently. Of course information should reach them via not only sms/text, but also email, iPhone push, Blackberry, pager, voice, etc